Ukraine drives European artillery renaissance

Long-range fires are undergoing a significant revival across Europe as governments rebuild artillery capabilities that had declined sharply following the end of the Cold War.

Speaking at Eurosatory 2026 on 17 June, Shephard Defence Insight analyst Dr Peter Magill described the trend as an “artillery renaissance”, driven largely by lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and growing concern over the prospect of high-intensity conflict in Europe.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many European countries reduced force structures and prioritised capabilities better suited to peacekeeping, stabilisation and counter-insurgency operations. Heavy armour and long-range fires were often viewed as less relevant, leading to substantial reductions in artillery inventories.

According to Magill, Germany reduced its self-propelled howitzer fleet from around 1,200 systems in 1990 to approximately 100 by 2020, while the UK fielded only 68 AS90 self-propelled guns in 2022, with around half believed to be operational.

The war in Ukraine has prompted a reassessment of those assumptions. Artillery has played a central role throughout the conflict, supporting defensive operations, enabling counter-offensives and striking logistics and command targets behind the front line.

Long-range fires were reportedly responsible for around 80% of personnel and equipment losses on both sides during 2024.

This renewed focus has translated into major procurement activity. Since 2022, European NATO members have awarded contracts for almost 1,400 self-propelled howitzers across 14 countries and more than 400 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) across 11 countries.

Poland has emerged as the largest buyer in both categories, while Estonia, Lithuania and Romania have also invested heavily in new artillery capabilities.

The spending associated with this modernisation effort has reached US$31.7 billion, comprising US$21.5 billion for self-propelled artillery and US$10.2 billion for MLRS programmes. Poland alone accounts for approximately US$12 billion of that total.

Market activity has produced clear winners. Hanwha Aerospace’s K9 Thunder is the most widely ordered self-propelled howitzer, with 698 systems contracted since 2022.

The KNDS Caesar and RCH 155 have also secured significant orders. In the MLRS segment, South Korea’s K239 Chunmoo has emerged as the leading platform ahead of HIMARS and PULS.

The conflict in Ukraine is also shaping future requirements. Mobility has become increasingly important as the proliferation of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and precision fires has made static artillery positions more vulnerable.

Platforms capable of conducting rapid shoot-and-scoot operations are therefore attracting growing interest.

Range is another key consideration, with artillery increasingly required to operate beyond the approximately 20km kill zone that now exists on either side of the front line in Ukraine.

Looking ahead, automation, manned-unmanned teaming and the growing use of one-way effectors are expected to influence future artillery development.

Uncrewed ground vehicles are already being used for logistics support, while optionally crewed or autonomous artillery systems may become increasingly common as militaries seek to reduce risk to personnel and maintain operational mass.

For European governments, however, procuring new platforms is only part of the challenge.

Sustaining long-term artillery operations will also require robust ammunition production and resilient supply chains capable of supporting the rates of expenditure seen in Ukraine.

As a result, artillery modernisation is increasingly becoming a question not only of capability, but also of industrial capacity.