How the evolving MQ-9B is opening new markets for GA-ASI

Ever since it was first unveiled, the capabilities of the MQ-9B have been evolving, allowing manufacturer GA-ASI to pitch the drone at procurements it previously would not have been suitable for.

One avenue of evolution is in the naval domain, with the introduction of short-takeoff and landing (STOL) capabilities. GA-ASI announced it was developing this capability for the aircraft in 2022, having begun in 2017. This allows the drone to be pitched towards navies, which are increasingly interested in augmenting carriers with highly capable STOL-capable medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), with 12.3% of all MALE UAV spending estimated to come from navies in the coming years on this capability. 

A customer with these specific requirements is the UK Royal Navy (RN), which, through Project Vanquish, is interested in developing and testing an attritable, STOL-capable technical demonstrator Autonomous Collaboration Platform (ACP) that will operate from Queen Elizabeth Class carriers. The UAV will, in turn, inform future capability development and procurement options, with Defence Insight valuing a potential future procurement at US$960 million.

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GA-ASI has been linked to this effort for many years, having first been awarded a $1.5 million non-qualifying single-source contract from the RN in 2023 to demonstrate “a threshold capability” for an STOL UAV that could be operated without needing to modify the Queen Elizabeth Class. The evolution of the MQ-9B into a STOL-capable platform has likely given it a high chance of competing in this procurement in the years to come. 

Another avenue in which GA-ASI appears to be evolving the drone is its cost. As Defence Insight has reported in the past, due to lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War and the 2026 Iran War, there is a clear shift in the industry away from relatively expensive, vulnerable MALE UAVs towards lower-cost, expendable systems.

This is evidenced by the Massed Modular Aircraft (MMA) requirements, a US Air Force (USAF) programme that Defence Insight values at $3.26 billion. The logic behind the requirements was outlined by a Defense Innovation Unit’s (DIU) recent solicitation, which explained that what it called “exquisite” and therefore relatively expensive drones are “unsustainable against adversaries utilising layered defences enabled by increasingly low-cost anti-aircraft capabilities”.

Therefore, it believes that the US must accept the inevitable attrition of its UAVs and, subsequently, that the MMA, which will replace its fleet of GA-ASI MQ-9 Reapers, should be – among other things – low-cost and mass-producible. GA-ASI president Dave Alexander, speaking to Aviation Week in June 2026, summed up the requirements: “What they want is [an] MQ-9 at one-third of the cost.”

Nevertheless, as it evolved the MQ-9B to meet various naval requirements, GA-ASI will develop the aircraft to meet these needs. A company spokesperson told Breaking Defense it would bid for the programme, offering a modular MQ-9B which Defence Insight estimates will have a much lower unit cost than the $30.12 million outlined by US budget documents.

These aspects are just two examples of the platform’s evolution, as noted by Shephard elsewhere, with the drone receiving several other upgrades that have continued its development. This includes the addition of an airborne early warning (AEW), developed in collaboration with Saab, and the expansion of the drone’s long-range precision-strike capability.

Upgrades leading to acquisitions

As proven by the RN’s Project Vanquish and the USAF’s MMA efforts, GA-ASI’s ability to evolve the popular aircraft means it can be pitched to meet a variety of requirements. It is therefore not surprising that, in addition to the 11 customers who have already acquired the drone, various other deals could be signed in the coming years.

As shown below, the most valuable potential purchase could come from Saudi Arabia. At IDEX 2025, Alexander told media that the company was in the early stages of discussing a procurement deal with Saudi Arabia for the MQ-9B. Defence Insight estimates that 130 units of the aircraft are part of a forecast $6.14 billion deal. 

Also in the Middle East, the UAE is seemingly close to acquiring 18 MQ-9Bs for $2.97 billion. The deal stagnated under the Biden administration, but was revigorated when Trump took office for the second time, with GA-ASI and Calidus signing a Memorandum of Understanding to collaborate on the prospective co-production of the MQ-9B and Gambit in the UAE at UMEX 2026.

In addition to a modular version being offered for the USAF’s MMA programme, the USAF may also acquire the MQ-9B in the near future as it seeks immediate replacements for 42 Reapers, which the Congressional Research Service confirmed in May had been lost during the 2026 Iran War. 

As of June 2026, the force has allocated funding to the procurement and expects a contract award before the end of FY2026 in September. At ILA Berlin 2026, Alexander told The War Zone that GA-ASI had offered the MQ-9B for procurement, noting it was the only viable solution to the capability shortfall due to the closure of the MQ-9 Reaper production line in 2024.

$12 billion of signed deals

As shown above, the MQ-9B has already attracted a large customer base since its unveiling. Defence Insight estimates that 11 customers have spent $12 billion on the MQ-9B to date, with a total of 97 aircraft estimated to have been bought.

The UK is one of these operators, with the UAV designated as the Protector RG1 in its terminology. Throughout the course of the Royal Air Force’s Protector programme, the UK is estimated to have spent $794.3 million to acquire 16 drones, making it the second largest fleet operator, with a few units still to be delivered.

The largest MQ-9B customer, both in terms of contract value and fleet size, is India. The country first identified a requirement for such a capability in 2016 and, following years of slow progress, India consented in June 2023 to acquire 31 armed MQ-9Bs: 15 SeaGuardians for the Indian Navy and eight SkyGuardians each for the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force, to be assembled in India. Months later, in February 2024, the US State Department greenlit a $3.99 billion Foreign Military Sale (FMS) acquisition.

The third-largest known MQ-9B procurement in terms of value came from Qatar. In March 2025, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced that the State Department had a determination approving a possible FMS of eight MQ-9B MALE aircraft and a vast array of supporting equipment to the Government of Qatar. Two months later, during President Trump’s visit to Qatar, the White House announced on 15 May 2025 that a procurement contract worth “nearly $2 billion” between GA-ASI and Qatar had been signed.

Interestingly, as noted, Qatar required a vast array of supporting equipment, including hundreds of bombs, many missiles, radars, radios, satellite communication ground systems and related equipment, as well as US technical support. This request resulted in each MQ-9B acquired by Qatar costing an estimated $245 million.

By comparison, under the UK’s programme, each drone is estimated to have cost $49.64 million, similar to the estimated gross unit costs of the MQ-9Bs acquired by Japan and Belgium.

On the surface, this suggests the UK may have acquired much less supporting equipment and services. However, this is likely not the case, or at least not to the extent the numbers suggest. The UK appears to be acquiring subsystems for the drone through separate procurements, as exemplified by the Strategic Defence Review 2025, which stated that Protector should be “enhanced with maritime surveillance equipment”. Further evidence lies in the UK’s 2023 announcement that the projected whole-life cost – not just procurement – would be £1.764 billion, far greater than the procurement cost alone.

Shephard’s Farnborough International Airshow coverage is sponsored by MBDA

Related Programmes in Defence Insight

Protector RG1 [UK]

MQ-9B [Saudi Arabia]

Massed Modular Aircraft (MMA) [USAF]

Related Equipment in Defence Insight

Queen Elizabeth Class

MQ-9B SkyGuardian / SeaGuardian

MQ-9A Reaper