Forecast $21.9 billion light attack and trainer opportunities up for grabs as Leonardo lines up M-346

Shephard has forecast a global market opportunity worth US$21.9 billion for light attack and training aircraft, which Leonardo’s M-346 could be well-placed to compete in as demand for the aircraft remains strong, according to the company.

“There’s a lot of updates ongoing with the trainer and light attack aircraft, the M-346, which is doing very well in terms of business,” Roberto Cingolani, CEO at Leonardo, said at the company’s recent Industrial Plan update.

“There’s a plethora of countries who want to have light fighters, because they cannot afford an F-35 or Eurofighter,” Cingolani added. “This is a main pipeline [of opportunity].”

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The backlog of orders for the light fighter variant M-346FA, Cingolani added, also remains stable. To date, the aircraft has four customers: Austria, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Turkmenistan.

Indonesia, meanwhile, became the latest potential customer at Singapore Airshow in February 2026, confirming that it had selected the aircraft to fulfil a requirement for 20 light fighter jets. Shephard forecasts that a contract could be finalised by the end of 2026.

One key forecast order opportunity for the M-346, as noted by Shephard, is with Brazil. Up to 30 light attack aircraft could be acquired to modernise the country’s aerial capabilities, replacing the Brazilian Air Force’s (FAB) ageing fleet of AMX A-1 aircraft and its Navy’s A-4 Skyhawks. Shephard estimates that a contract award worth around US$2.1 billion could take place in 2026.

Training aircraft capability gap remains

The M-346 is also seen as a strong contender for various European countries to pick as a training aircraft, due to its versatility and ability to be used for fast-jet training – with pilots then moving to train on the F-35 and Eurofighter Typhoon.

Some European nations are currently facing significant capability gaps when it comes to training aircraft, with a growing demand to replace ageing fleets.

Within Shephard’s forecast market value opportunity, $19 billion could be up for grabs for fast-jet trainer replacements, with the M-346 a potential candidate for next-generation trainer programmes in countries such as Australia and Italy. Austria became the latest country to procure the multi-role aircraft, with a contract for 12 M-346 jets signed in November 2025.

There is also significant “good opportunity” for the M-346 training aircraft in North America, Cingolani noted. The US Navy (USN) is currently seeking a replacement for its 216 T-45 Goshawk trainers, with aims to modernise its Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS). Leonardo’s M-346 is a contender for the replacement bid, pitching for the opportunity with Textron.

In its Request for Information, updated in December 2025, the USN said that it expected to award a contract for the replacement of these aircraft by mid-2027.

Questions over whether UK will buy the M-346

Following a successful New Medium Helicopter £1 billion ($1.33 billion) contract win, the M-346 stands as a potential option for the replacement of the UK’s ageing Hawk training aircraft. Leonardo offered final assembly for the aircraft in the UK in September 2025, should it be selected to replace the Royal Air Force’s BAE Systems Hawk T1 and T2 aircraft.

Cingolani said Leonardo remains keen to sell the M-346 to the UK, although noted the difficulties of competing programmes and priorities for the country.

“I would be super happy [to see the M-346 procured]…but we’ll have to see. It seems to me that at the moment there are other priorities. But the relationship with the UK remains very constructive,” he said.

The M-346 remains a potential contender for the replacement, alongside Boeing, Saab and BAE Systems’ T-7 Red Hawk aircraft.

In January 2026, the UK Ministry of Defence said that requirements to define the Hawk’s T2 advanced jet trainer were progressing.

While any formal competition to replace the aircraft is expected to be published in line with the Defence Investment Plan, there is still a mounting need to replace the availability shortcomings of the T2 and expected retirement of the Hawk T1 by 2030 “as soon as possible”.

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