German rearmament – three potential scenarios

The government of Olaf Scholz made a great deal out of its Zeitenwende – or “turning point” – policy of rearming the German armed forces after years of chronic underfunding. However, despite promising a €100 billion (US$110.5 billion) fund, tangible change failed to materialise, embodied by the fact that German defence spending had still not reached 2% of GDP when Scholz left office in May 2025.

The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor in May 2025 appeared to herald a new direction in German defence. On 22 May, Merz inaugurated a new German mechanised brigade, the 45th Panzer Brigade, which will be permanently stationed in Lithuania and is the first German formation to be permanently positioned in Eastern Europe since 1945.

During this inauguration, Merz gave a speech in which he vowed to defend every inch of NATO territory, saying that the Bundeswehr needed to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.

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It was also reported in late May 2025 that NATO was planning to ask Germany to provide seven new brigades as part of the alliance’s collective defence effort. While not officially confirmed, in early June 2025, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said Germany needed to train up to 60,000 new troops to meet NATO targets for personnel and formations. This lent credence to the idea that Germany was seeking to create seven new brigades.

Existing brigade structures

To meet the requirements to field these brigades, Germany would need to procure hundreds of new armoured vehicles. 

The minimum composition of a German mechanised brigade intended for frontline manoeuvre warfare includes at least 44 Leopard 2s and 88 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV). Having ordered 105 new Leopard 2A8s to equip it, the 45th Panzer Brigade appears to be following a structure similar to the 9th Armoured Brigade, which comprises two tank battalions and two mechanised infantry battalions, with 44 Leopard 2A6s, 44 Leopard 2A7s, and 88 Puma IFVs. 

Once it reaches full strength, it will also include 5,000 troops. This indicates that Germany will require at least 35,000 new soldiers to adequately staff seven brigades.

Three scenarios for Bundeswehr expansion

There are three potential scenarios that will influence how these new brigades are equipped. In all three scenarios, Germany would need at least 616 new main battle tanks (MBTs) and 616 IFVs. This does not include any spare vehicles that Germany would need to allow for training and to ensure that each battalion remained at maximum readiness. To meet this requirement, Shephard forecasts that Germany will need to procure 650 MBTs at a total cost of $12.4 billion.

It is Germany’s choice of IFV that causes the discrepancy. Germany will most likely choose between the Puma and Boxer. German light Jager infantry are currently equipped with Boxer, while the heavier Panzergrenadiers are equipped with Pumas or the older Marder. 

In the first scenario, Germany opts to establish an all-Panzergrenadier force, in which case Shephard forecasts it will procure 650 Puma IFVs for a total cost of $7.4 billion. In the second scenario, Germany instead opts for an all-Jager force, for which Shephard forecasts that it will procure 650 Boxers at a total cost of $5.5 billion. In the third scenario, Germany opts for a mixed force with some new brigades containing Panzergrenadiers and some containing Jagers. In this scenario Shephard forecasts it would procure 325 Pumas for $3.7 billion and 325 Boxers for $2.73 billion.

Additionally, in all three scenarios, lighter tactical vehicles will be required for reconnaissance and support roles. Germany currently operates an estimated 30 Fennek Scout vehicles per reconnaissance battalion. As such, Shephard forecasts that Germany would acquire 240 Korsak reconnaissance vehicles, for a total value of $1.01 billion.

The procurement of these vehicles would be a significant undertaking, potentially costing upwards of $20 billion. It would be the largest expansion of the Bundeswehr since the end of the Cold War. 

The personnel required to staff these brigades will require a major shift in German society, which has witnessed a declining willingness to join the armed forces in recent years. At a time when European governments are struggling financially, Germany is no exception and Chancellor Merz has hinted at the need to shrink Germany’s growing welfare bill; the resources needed to fund this expansion will be hard to find. 

After years of defence underfunding and facing an increasingly unstable global climate, the question for the German government is, can it afford not to? Difficult political decisions will need to be made in Berlin if Germany is to prove its military pronouncements are more than a paper tiger, or perhaps paper leopard.

Shephard’s DSEI 2025 coverage is sponsored by:

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