Portugal may snub F-35 fighter jets in the face of Trump administration “unpredictability”

Portugal has a fleet of 20 F-16 fighter aircraft left, of the 45 aircraft which entered service more than 20 years ago. And while they have undergone upgrades, they are expected to be replaced early in the 2030s.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 multirole fighter aircraft was considered the front runner to meet this need. In fact, in 2023 the Chief of Staff of the Portuguese Air Force (FAP), General João Guilherme Rosado Cartaxo Alves stated that the F-35A was the preferred choice.

In 2024, Gen. Alves added: “This process has already begun. We had a workshop here with Lockheed and the US Air Force to also learn what this leap to the fifth generation is.”

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Getting the F-35s in service in Portugal would cost around €5.5 billion (US$5.9 billion) over the next two decades, according to the General. At the time, he also said that the first aircraft could be delivered in seven years.

However, the future of the F-35A as the presumed aircraft to replace Portugal's F-16s was thrown into doubt this week after the nation’s Defence Minister, Nuno Melo, told Portuguese publication Publico that “the world has already changed” under the Trump administration.

Melo said: “[Portugal’s] F-16s are at the end of their cycle and we will have to think about replacing them. But, in our choices, we cannot be oblivious to the geopolitical environment.

“The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO and at the international geostrategic level, has to make us think about the best options.”

A key issue noted by Melo was the need for predictability and the notion that the US would be by Portugal’s side. He argued that the change in the approach of the US under President Donald J Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had thrown that into doubt.

Melo refused to be drawn on specific alternatives, but said: “[There are] several options … namely in the context of European production and also taking into account the return that these options may have for the Portuguese economy.”

This hints at two or three main potential aircraft, namely the single-engine Saab Gripen, the larger Dassault Aviation Rafale, or the twin-engine Eurofighter Typhoon which is slightly larger again than the Rafale. In terms of empty weight, the single-engine F-16 falls among other two single-engine aircraft.

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