Russian invasion of Ukraine may trigger protracted cyber conflict

Ukraine is no stranger to Russian cyberattacks, especially since the annexation of Crimea and the takeover of some eastern parts of the country in 2014.

Now, however, experts believe that the pace and intensity of attacks is likely to increase amid the latest invasion of Ukraine.

Seth Jones, the director of international security programmes at the Washington DC-based thinktank CSIS, noted how Russia has conducted ‘aggressive cyber operations against Ukraine going back to [2017’s] NotPetya intrusion and other, malware attacks’.

He cited operations by Russia’s FSB (internal security), GRU (military intelligence) and SVU (foreign intelligence) agencies. Distributed Denial of Service and malware attacks have continued in recent weeks, Jones noted, including the takedown of the Ukrainian MoD a few days before the invasion.

Ukraine is known for a ‘pretty robust cyber defence system’ but it is also now receiving ‘some assistance’ from unnamed sources in the offensive EW realm, Jones added. 

Important additional cyber support from the US to Ukraine is included in the $10 billion assistance package now being considered by Congress. Out of this fund, the DoD plans to allocate $1.25 billion for cybersecurity, intelligence and other defence support. It will be used in operational surges across multiple national defence components, including accelerated cyber capabilities, weapons systems upgrades, increased intelligence support, and classified programmes.

Reinforced EW and offensive cyber capabilities has degraded Russia’s EW and communications capabilities at a tactical level — Ukraine has enjoyed some success in SATCOM interference, for instance, and it appears that the ERA military secure communications system, introduced by Russia to great fanfare in 2021, has turned out to be useless in battlefield conditions.

Jones also noted the apparently unbidden involvement of unaffiliated pro-Ukraine hackers such as Anonymous – people with ‘nothing to do with US or other Western or certainly European states and their governments’. He added that he was unaware of outlier cyber participation on the current scale in previous wars.

Anonymous declared ‘cyber war’ on the Russian government on 24 February, hours after the Russian invasion began. 

The Anonymous collective is officially in cyber war against the Russian government. #Anonymous #Ukraine

— Anonymous (@YourAnonOne) February 24, 2022

For its part, the Ukrainian government-sponsored Hacker Army is reportedly targeting Russian cyber and EW elements. Any such asymmetric aid is likely to be welcomed by NATO and allied military intelligence circles, as they need all the help they can get; Moscow’s vast cyberwar expertise means a ‘long, protracted conflict’ is in the offing, Jones warned.

Asked if NATO member states may share cyber best practices, techniques, technology and rules of engagement with the US and vice versa, Jones answered that it would not surprise him: ‘I certainly could see shared technical capabilities to conduct cyber defence and also [offensive operations].’

This assistance along with kinetic weapons [LINK TO STINGER, JAVELIN] are needed in light of US and other nations’ unwillingness to send military forces. But even now, ‘the campaign we’re already seeing involves … important cyber capabilities,’ said Jones. ‘And I think for everyone I’ve spoken to — senior US and European officials — cyber is definitely on the table,’ joining antitank weapons, SAMs and other armament.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken affirmed on 2 March that Russia can expect the US and NATO among others to aid Ukraine in military, humanitarian and other ways.

‘We’ve been focused on the potential for cyber attacks’ against Ukraine and the US for some time, he said. ‘We’ve been working for months to sharpen and harden defences ... All that work is very much underway, including in the private sector.’

Additional reporting by Ben Vogel, London