JF-17 fighter fills expanding niche in a competitive geopolitical market

With Azerbaijan becoming the third export customer of the JF-17 fighter in September 2024, along with sales to Myanmar and Nigeria, the orders from low-ranking operators are unlikely to pave the way for the aircraft as a short-term, major export success.

These modest contract wins have, however, been relatively unusual for a new small aircraft programme and have signalled a new arrival in an extremely competitive market. When set against the wider geopolitical backdrop, the significance of these deals is even greater. The F-35 is cleaning up the ‘Western zone’ while the F-16 is perceived to be on a decline and is still to some degree export limited.

Elsewhere, Saab’s Gripen E/F is just reaching maturity, while France has ended the Mirage series, traditionally a relatively neutral source of fighters. Korean Aerospace Industries’ F/A-50s from KAI are selling well, but they are very much at the lighter end, meanwhile, Russia’s position as a defence exporter – among other things – has been severely damaged and as an equipment supplier it has yet to be replaced wholesale by China. As such, the JF-17, as a mid-tier aircraft from a mid-tier and relatively unaligned, Islamic country, has the potential to fill an expanding market niche.

The aircraft is being marketed under a Pakistani designation, despite it being around 40% Chinese-make and of mixed-design DNA (although in China, where it is not in service, the aircraft it is given the appellation ‘FC-1’). The final assembly and check-out (FACO) facility is in Pakistan and while Chinese permission is almost certainly required, Pakistan is nominally the export negotiator.

For a country that had never previously made a combat aircraft, Islamabad has good reason to feel rather pleased. While repeated claims of interest from Argentina, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Iran have not translated into sales, they are not beyond possibility. In the case of Iran, Pakistan used its JF-17s against insurgents in Iran, making for possibly awkward negotiations.

The JF-17 has plenty more to give

Yet, there are three main reasons for optimism for the JF-17 in 2024. The first is that, with yet another contract under its belt in September, the aircraft is approaching the critical mass that tends to become something of a positive feedback loop. Pakistan has shown it can manage multiple partners, while the numbers being ordered strongly suggest a series of upgrades over the next few decades.

The second, is that it has few direct rivals but many opportunities as the global MiG-21 and older MiG-29 fleets are being retired. It is lower cost and less complicated to acquire than US or European aircraft, making it a tempting prospect for nations with lower budgets and weaker alliances with the major Western manufacturers.

Finally, it has been offered as a potential partnership effort for nations seeking to develop some indigenous aerospace capability.

That is not to say, however, that it has achieved a commanding position. For one, the JF-17 remains reliant on a Russian engine. There is also the suggestion that the onboard systems are adequate but nowhere close to those coming out of the US or Europe. It is also not currently compatible with Western-standard weapons or systems.

Finally, although it is presently occupying a relatively niche position in terms of cost vs. capability vs. supplier, the Indian Tejas fighter is likely to soon appear as an export, while the South Korean KF-21 and Turkish TF Kaan also seems likely to crowd this space towards 2030.

Despite the increase in use of UAV/UCAVs, most air forces are loathe to end entirely their crewed-combat component. Lockheed Martin and Dassault have taken much of the high-end space at present, but there remain many shoppers out there with different purse sizes and political priorities.

The light-medium aircraft space will likely become increasingly crowded over the next five years, with a variety of new companies contending in the field. Despite the tendency to focus on the ‘top guns’ of the fighter world, for now, PAC has stolen something of a march on the rest. There continues to be a market for the ‘good enough’ offering that leaves space in the budget for other capabilities. 2024 is unlikely to be the last of the JF-17 export years.

This analysis article originally appeared in October’s Decisive Edge Air Newsletter. To receive regular updates from Edward Hunt and our team of defence experts visit our Decisive Edge sign up page.

Related Equipment in Defence Insight

JF-17/FC-1