Insight: How India’s Tri-Service MQ-9B $4 billion deal was awarded
In a Tweet by GA-ASI on 29 July 2021, the SeaGuardian was described as the SkyGuardian’s ‘salty sibling’. (Photo: GA-ASI)
After lengthy negotiations, the Indian Ministry of Defence has now signed a US$4 billion contract with the US Government to procure 31 MQ-9B drones from General Atomics, marking India as the largest customer of this UAV model.
After eight years of negotiations, the Indian MoD announced last week that it had signed a contract worth an estimated $4 billion with the US Government to procure 31 MQ-9Bs MALE UAVs from General Atomics (GA-ASI).
The contract award marked the culmination of lengthy negotiations with the US over acquiring GA-ASI drones, with the Indian Navy first enquiring about the MQ-9A Reaper in 2016. In June 2017, the US offered the Indian Navy 22 units of the then-new MQ-9B SeaGuardian aircraft, the successor of the Reaper. In 2018, the Indian Government expanded the infant programme into a tri-service acquisition, bringing in the Indian Army and Indian Army Force.
Following the decision, progress dramatically slowed. In November 2020, the Indian Navy began operating two leased MQ-9B SkyGuardians on a one-year contract. More new energy was injected into the programme in September 2021, when Dr Vivek Lall, chief executive of General Atomics Global Corporation, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, DC. In late 2021, various news outlets reported that a contract for 30 MQ-9B platforms would be signed at the India–US 2+2 Ministerial Level Dialogue in the first week of December 2021. This, however, did not occur.
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Dialogue over the procurement between India and the US continued in 2022, with Shephard reporting in December 2022 that the programme was stalling on India’s end, with a meeting of the Defence Acquisition Council awaited and set to be followed by final clearance from Modi.
In June 2023, before Modi visited US President Joe Biden, the President’s administration advised India to push through its bureaucratic red tape to advance the deal. This push appeared successful, as, on 15 June 2023, India consented to procure 31 armed MQ-9Bs for an estimated cost of $3.072 billion. As Shephard reported, the consented deal comprised 15 SeaGuardians for the Indian Navy and eight SkyGuardians each for the Indian Army and Indian Air Force, to be assembled in India.
Approval from the US came over half a year later, with the US State Department notifying Congress in February 2024 that it had approved the potential FMS sale of the 31 GA-ASI drones to India. Notably, the State Department’s announcement estimated the programme would cost $4 billion, $1 billion higher than the $3 billion touted in mid-2023.
The MQ-9B market showing signs of global growth
The Indian contract for 31 units makes it the largest customer of the MQ-9B. The second biggest customer, regarding the number of units acquired is the UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) which acquired 16 MQ-9B drones, called the Protector RG1 in RAF nomenclature, in 2020–21. The third largest customer is Canada, which, in December 2023, awarded GA-ASI a CAD$2.5 billion ($1.8 billion) package through its Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) programme to acquire 11 MQ-9B SkyGuardian aircraft along with a plethora of supporting equipment and services.
According to data from Shephard Defence Insight, $7.4 billion has been spent to acquire the aircraft, with other customers including Belgium, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, the UK and the US.
In addition, another $7.4 billion could be spent on the drone in the coming years, with extensive contacts potentially coming from the UAE, Poland, Morocco, Japan and Germany through the fixed-wing portion of its Zielplan Marine 2035+ project. If the MQ-9B wins all of these open contracts, Shephard's data suggests spending on the drone would cross $1 billion per annum in 2029 and 2030, as shown by the graph below.
Emboldening the Make In India initiative
More than a decade ago, in September 2014, the Indian Government launched the Make In India initiative to encourage domestic manufacturing and assembly of products.
GA-ASI announced a strategic partnership with Bharat Forge on 3 January 2023 in line with this initiative. The partnership covered manufacturing landing gear components, subassemblies and UAV assemblies. Additionally, alongside the contact announcement, the Indian MoD confirmed that General Atomics Global India Pvt Ltd had been given a contract for performance logistics and repairs on the newly acquired MQ-9Bs in India.
India, however, wishes to field 155 indigenously produced MALE drones alongside the 31 MQ-9Bs, despite the US aircraft benefiting the Indian aerospace industry. The Tapas BH-201 UAV has been developed for this domestic requirement by a consortium comprising Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), DRDO and Bharat Electronics, which have jointly invested $46 million.
In August 2023, one of these drones crashed during what the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) called an “experimental flight trial”. Later in the same year, various reports noted that the domestic aircraft in technical specifications were disappointing, causing doubt over the programme’s ability to deliver a quality drone without external assistance.
Despite this, The Economic Times reported in June 2024 that the Indian Air Force had proposed the purchase of 10 Tapas drones to the Indian Government, six for itself and four for the Indian Navy. At the time, it was hoped these limited acquisitions would allow the drones to be upgraded and refined, helping them satisfy a more significant Indian requirement in the future.
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