Russia reaches new monthly record for Lancet use in Ukraine

Russian forces in Ukraine deployed more Lancet loitering munitions in the month of May 2024 than any previous month of the war, according to data collected by the Lostarmour website, a pro-Russian outlet that has been tracking losses in the war since 2015.

The milestone has caused concern regarding the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, indicating that Russian forces have either managed to stockpile a large quantity of the munitions or that production has accelerated. In any case, the quantities of Lancets available to Russian forces has increased dramatically and Ukraine has suffered many vehicle losses as a result.

The data, based upon video footage released by the Russian MoD and soldiers over social media, indicated that there had been 1,891 Lancet strikes by 12 June 2024 with the first recorded strike in July 2022. There were 302 Lancet strikes recorded in May of 2024, surpassing the previous monthly high of 178 in March 2024. The high use rate looks set to continue as the site has tracked 72 Lancet engagements in June at the time of writing, indicating that June may also surpass March in the number of Lancet strikes, but it was unlikely to surpass May.

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The increase has been driven by the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region. In a 133km stretch of the fighting, which extends approximately from the village of Volokhivs'ke around 62km east of Kharkiv, to Spirne, which is 68km north west of Kharkiv, there have been 108 geolocated Lancet strikes. The deepest has been recorded in the environs of the Kharkiv airport, 50km from the most forward strike in that area, which is the maximum reported range of Lancet-3M. The majority of them have occurred since the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region began in May 2024, or were conducted in preparation for it.

Lancet use has been mixed along the frontline and has not been universally used at scale. When the first strikes were observed in July 2023, Lancet was understood to be confined to Russia’s special forces but it has since expanded to the 76^thand 78^th divisions of Russia’s airborne forces, as well as the GRU – Russia’s military intelligence agency – and even Wagner mercenaries during the fight for Bakhmut.

It has been apparent that the system has been concentrated in those areas that are the focus of Russian offensive operations. For example, there is a significant concentration of 102 Lancet strikes in a 33km stretch of the front that is currently between 6–7km from Bakhmut, and includes Chasiv Yar, which has been heavily fought over. The concentration, however, included strikes from 2023 through to June 2024 and so does not match the intensity of use in Kharkiv.

A Ukrainian artillery officer fighting in the Kharkiv region indicated that he had not seen Lancet use like that which he and his crew were experiencing anywhere else on the frontline in an interview with Reuters on the 16 May.

“One comes, then a second one comes, 10 minutes later a third one comes," he said, but added that his battery of five guns had nevertheless been able to fire more than 1,000 shells since joining the fighting in the Kharkiv region. This indicates that while the density of Lancets in the region is high, it remains possible for artillery to operate effectively and that apocalyptic warnings about the relevance of armoured vehicles in the face of drones need to be treated with extreme caution.

The use of Lancet in the Kharkiv region is a well-established pattern for the Russian armed forces. It has a leading role in engaging Ukrainian howitzers and artillery systems that are often camouflaged or concealed in tree lines. Added to this, the munition was used to engage Ukrainian reinforcements as they were rushed to the area. As a result, there are multiple strikes against moving vehicles on roads, including 8x8 Rosomaks supplied to Ukraine by Poland, T-64 tanks, trucks full of personnel and heavy equipment transports moving additional howitzers.

It rarely appears to be used against Ukrainian troops within direct fire range of Russian positions, which indicates that it is seen as an operational – as opposed to tactical – weapon. Key to this has been the accuracy of the system, which enables Russian units to engage isolated Ukrainian vehicles with a greater chance of success than any use of unguided weapons.

Lancet has been adapted to conditions in Ukraine through several iterative developments that have been accompanied by a significant expansion in production facilities and capacity. At present, Lancet represents a family of loitering munitions from Zala Aero that have a range of 40–50km and are equipped with optical sensors including some variants with thermal imaging.

There have also been variants that carry Nvidia Jetson computers designed to enable edge computing with artificial intelligence. Lancets are typically paired with a reconnaissance drone such as the Z-16 from Zala Aero or the Orlan-10, which locates targets for a Lancet to engage, or flown independently to locate and strike targets based upon their own imaging system.

The lethality of the systems has evolved to include different warheads including a high-explosive fragmentation warhead or a shaped charge that can penetrate around 200mm of armour. It is worth noting, however, that not all strikes result in a catastrophic kill; even Lostarmour, with an openly pro-Russian stance, noted that of the 830 recorded or attempted strikes against towed and self-propelled artillery, only 241 resulted in what it regarded as a catastrophic loss.

A total of 429 strikes resulted in damage and 96 had unknown outcomes. The remainder were classified as misses. In some ways, this disparity has reflected the survivability of some howitzers against explosive effects; it is relatively difficult to decisively destroy an M777, for example. It has also been indicative of the design challenges placed upon long-range reconnaissance strike drones, which must balance a limited maximum take-off weight, with the available power to propel them to the desired range while maintaining communications and their on-board sensors. All of which limits the lethal payload available within a certain size package.

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