AUKUS plan B? Japan’s submarines stopgap gains traction
Collins-class submarines HMAS Collins, HMAS Farncomb, HMAS Dechaineux and HMAS Sheean in formation. The HMAS Farncomb is the first in line for modernisation. (Photo: Australian Government Defence)
Australia’s Collins-class life of type extension has revived debate over whether Canberra needs a contingency plan as risks to every stage of the AUKUS pathway mount. With Japan newly open to exports, the case for a diesel-electric stopgap is gaining traction.
Australia’s ambitions for a nuclear-powered submarine fleet under AUKUS rest on three interlocking assumptions: that the Collins-class Life of Type Extension (LOTE) will keep its ageing boats in service; that US shipyards will double their production rate to make Virginia-class boats available in the early 2030s; and that Australia and the UK will design and build an entirely new class of nuclear-powered submarine before the decade is out.
On 19 May 2026, the Albanese government announced the launch of the Collins LOTE programme. Equipment is to be repaired or replaced only where judged critical. The programme will commence with
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